After the Budget was published on 30 October 2024, the following analysis was published by the Global Campaign on Military Spending UK

Summary

In the government’s Autumn Budget, the UK’s core military spending rose to £56.9bn this financial year – 2024-25 – with an additional £2.9bn announced for next year. This means that this military spending is rising at an annual rate of 2.3% above inflation. While the government is still committed to eventually reaching a spending level of 2.5% GDP, it continues to avoid setting a target date. Core military spending is 4.3 times the budget for overseas aid - which is mainly managed by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office - and 5.5 times the budget of the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero – which includes most climate-related spending. The government continues to fail to meet the UN target on overseas aid, while climate action also remains seriously inadequate.

In more depth…

The Autumn Budget 2024 (AB24)[1] – the first by the new Labour government – revealed that the UK’s core military spending[2] reached £56.9 billion in the financial year 2024-25.[3] This is £3.0bn higher than in 2023-24, and £5.2bn higher than the previous Conservative government had projected for this year in its Spring Budget 2024 (SB24)[4] – see Table 1. This very large spending gap seems to be another element of the much discussed ‘£22bn black hole’ in the government’s finances. The new government has also announced an additional £2.9bn for military spending in 2025-26 bringing the total expected for that year to £59.8bn. Over the period 2023-26, the annual rise will be 2.3% above inflation.

Table 1 – A comparison of core military spending for 2023-26 as stated in Autumn Budget 2024 (AB24)[5] and the Spring Budget 2024 (SB24)[6]

The UK was the sixth largest military spender in the world in 2023[8] - and it is likely to retain a high spot after this budget settlement. The government repeated its aim to reach a level for military spending of 2.5% Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but continued to avoid setting a date.[9] This aspiration is well above the NATO target of 2.0% GDP.

Of the extra £2.9bn in 2025-26, £1.9bn will be for investment in new military equipment, with the remaining £1.0bn being for day-to-day costs. No specific information is given about which equipment programmes will receive the extra funding, but the programme for replacing Britain’s nuclear-armed submarines is currently running well over-budget,[10] so this is one of the most likely destinations.

The government has also made a commitment to provide £3bn per year indefinitely for military assistance to Ukraine,[11] an increase over previous years. Statements by the previous government revealed that the UK was spending nearly nine times as much on military support than on humanitarian aid to the country.[12]

The core figures also do not include some other areas of military spending, in particular, veterans’ pensions, which are not directly related to current government policies on the armed forces. If all these other categories are included, the total spending by the Ministry of Defence is £83bn.[13]

Comparing core military spending with other civilian budgets continues to be revealing, as follows.

● In 2024-25, core military spending was 4.3 times the overseas aid budget,[14] which is mainly managed by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. It is especially worrying that the government is to continue not meeting the UN target to spend 0.7% of Gross National Income (GNI) on overseas aid, while still being committed to exceeding its NATO military spending target. This undermines Britain’s contribution to helping to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals, including efforts to eradicate international poverty and hunger. The failure of the international community to properly fund these efforts is costing millions of lives each year.

● In 2024-25, core military spending was 5.5 times the budget of the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero – which is responsible for much of the government spending on reducing carbon emissions. With Britain having fallen behind on climate action under the previous government, and global temperature rise currently projected to breach the Paris target of 1.5C by 2031,[15] this is an area which has required much greater priority. Since the general election, there have been several announcements on new funding and projects, but climate scientists have questioned whether some of them will actually be effective.[16] The government does not have a spending target for climate action, so it continues to be difficult to judge how far short expenditure is in this area.

● In 2024-25, core military spending was 8.0 times the budget of the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs – which includes spending on nature protection. With biodiversity loss at critical levels, this is an area that also needs much greater funding.

In summary, despite a new government coming to power, the UK’s commitment to high military spending is undimmed – especially when compared to key areas such as overseas aid and climate action.

Dr Stuart Parkinson is Chair of GCOMS-UK and Executive Director of Scientists for Global Responsibility.

References

[1] HM Treasury (2024a). Autumn Budget 2024. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-budget-2024

[2] Core military spending is expenditure by the Ministry of Defence under its ‘resource’ and ‘capital’ budgets. It excludes certain other military budget lines as discussed in the main text.

[3] All figures in this briefing are calculated from those on pp.35-38 of HM Treasury (2024a) – except where otherwise indicated.

[4] pp.25-27 of: HM Treasury (2024b). Spring Budget 2024. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2024

[5] As note 3.

[6] As note 4.

[7] ‘Current prices’ means that there has been no adjustment for inflation.

[8] SIPRI (2024). Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2023. April. https://www.sipri.org/publications/2024/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2023

[9] p.55 of: HM Treasury (2024a).

[10] National Audit Office (2023). Ministry of Defence: The Equipment Plan 2023 to 2033. December. https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/equipment-plan-2023-to-2033/

[11] p.55 of: HM Treasury (2024a).

[12] GCOMS-UK (2024). Spring budget 24: Military spending continues to grow at the expense of climate funds and overseas aid. 7 March. https://demilitarize.org.uk/spring-budget-24-military-spending-continues-to-grow-at-the-expense-of-climate-funds-and-overseas-aid/

[13] p.164 of: HM Treasury (2024a).

[14] Calculated using figures from pp.87-88 of: HM Treasury (2024a).

[15] Climate Change Tracker (2024). Indicators of Global Climate Change. 29 October. https://climatechangetracker.org/igcc

[16] The Guardian (2024). Climate scientists call on Labour to pause £1bn plans for carbon capture. 25 September. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/25/climate-scientists-call-on-labour-to-pause-1bn-investment-plans-carbon-capture-blue-hydrogen