UK Public Opinion says Nuclear War is Biggest Threat of Extinction

By Christine Shawcroft, London CND Vice Chair 

The Doomsday Clock, set by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, has been moved on from 90 seconds to midnight last year to 89 seconds to midnight this year. Need we be worried about being a mere one second closer to catastrophe? Well, yes. 90 seconds was a warning of imminent disaster which should have spurred governments around the world to take drastic action. But they didn’t, so now we’re staring the destruction of human ‘civilisation’ (I use the term advisedly) in the face.

Apart from the real risks of nuclear war, the Bulletin scientists are very concerned about climate change, the potential misuse of biological science, and a variety of emerging technologies, such as AI weapons which could decide to kill and destroy without orders from a human. The world has never been so close to catastrophe, point out members of the Science and Security Board that set the Clock in consultation with the Bulletin’s Board of Sponsors, which includes nine winners of the Nobel prize.

The Bulletin itself was set up in 1945 by Albert Einstein, Robert Oppenheimer and University of Chicago scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project during World War Two. The Doomsday Clock was set up two years later. Clearly, world leaders feel that they can safely ignore the musings of intellectual dullards such as Einstein. Maybe they think they know better?

The people of Britain aren’t so sure. A recent YouGov poll, carried out at the end of January, shows that two thirds of us feel that nuclear war is the threat most likely to cause human extinction, up from just over 50% in 2023. The polling is remarkably consistent, with groups scoring within a couple of percentage points of each other regardless of age, gender, social class, country and region. 

Concerns of nuclear war has risen since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine

• People aged 50 to 64 are slightly less likely to think nuclear war will see us off, but that’s because a large proportion of them are equally worried about climate change or another pandemic (respondents could choose up to three threats). 

• People in London are almost as worried by climate change as the threat of nuclear war, yet when the bombs begin to fall large cities will be the first targets. 

• Reform UK voters are very worried about nuclear war, but think an asteroid strike is more likely than climate change!

War and climate change are closely linked. The carbon bootprint of military action is immense. In a nuclear war the detonation of just 50 warheads (which would be a very limited nuclear war indeed: this country has over 240 warheads and wants to increase them to nearer 300. The USA and Russia have several thousand each) would lead to a nuclear winter in which the skies would darken, there would be freezing temperatures leading to the deaths of farm animals, and the destruction of food crops. The people lucky enough (or unlucky enough?) to escape the first bombs would starve to death.

We have to change the direction of government policies, or next year we will be to nuclear midnight than ever…

Image credit: YouGov

Read the February edition of PeaceLine

London CND’s online magazine, PeaceLine, is back for February.

This month, editor Jessica Freedman explores newly inaugurated President Trump’s foreign policy, his administration’s stance on purchasing Greenland, and the geopolitical fallout of his recent remarks. Dave Webb, a member of CND’s International Advisory Group, examines how the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are being used as test beds for emerging technologies. This edition also takes a closer look at the UK's flawed nuclear energy developments at Sizewell C and Heysham 1 and 2.

This issue features a report by Sally Spiers on the launch of a new Finchley CND group. Sparked by concerns over the presence of US nuclear warheads in Britain, the group is rapidly growing and mobilising local efforts to raise awareness and take action.

Issue 6 of PeaceLine can be found here

Sally, Kate, and Ruth first discussed forming the group while attending the Lakenheath demonstration in November.

BDS Campaign Taking off in London

This article was written by London CND Vice Chair Christine Shawcroft.

At a full Council meeting on 22nd January, Tower Hamlets Council voted for a complete audit of its pension fund investments and declared its intention to divest funding from arms companies in particular. This was the culmination of many months’ hard work by members of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign and CND, leafletting and petitioning for divestment. Many thousands of signatures had been gathered on the streets for the petition, which was also placed on the Council’s website.

“I am pleased that the current Council has agreed to divest from companies assisting in Israel’s genocidal policies. This decision can only be activated if still more other London Boroughs do the same as pension funds are invested jointly, but this is a significant step forward" says Phil Sedler of Tower Hamlets CND.

The BDS campaigning is getting results across London, with Tower Hamlets being the fourth council to commit to divestment. Local campaigns in other boroughs are still very active. The impetus for BDS is, of course, the war crimes and plausible genocide taking place in Palestine, despite a recent negotiated ceasefire. There have been numerous breaches of the ceasefire by the Israeli government, and a stepping up of military action in the illegally occupied West Bank. It is being said locally that ‘ceasefire’ means ‘you cease, and we fire’ to the government. It has also been reported that Trump ‘sold’ the ceasefire agreement to the government by assuring them that they could break it and suffer no sanctions from the US.

However, the recent divestment decision taken in East London came just a few days after Bristol City Council voted to call on Avon Pension Fund to divest from companies supplying weapons or weapons components to Israel, as well as companies doing business in the illegal settlements. Other local authorities have already voted for divestment, with more resolutions to councils in the pipeline.

The horrors unfolding in Gaza are concentrating activists’ minds on stopping the complicity of our government and British firms with the actions of the right-wing Israeli government and calling for international law to be obeyed. However, stopping investment in arms companies would also affect other conflict zones around the world, and would be a major step towards peace in many areas. Many companies involved in the production of ‘conventional’ weapons are also involved in the production of nuclear weapons or of components for them. BDS campaigns can therefore also be part of our campaigning for a nuclear-free world.