Sad death of Christine Bickerstaff

Alex Forbes, Chair of Wimbledon CND Disarmament Coalition writes:

Sadly we have to report the death of Christine Bickerstaff, who was a staunchmember of Wimbledon Disarmament Coalition/CND ever since its inception in the1980s, who was particularly active in helping with our annual Fete of the Earth.

Christine was determined that our group should continue after the death of our previous Chair Maisie Carter, telling me ‘I’m terrified of a nuclear war, please help keep the campaign going’, and so she volunteered as treasurer. Christine attended our steering committee meetings and leaflet sessions in Wimbledon. In particular, she helped organise leafletting for our screenings of the film Oppenheimer in Wimbledon last year.

She was brilliant at engaging with the public, despite struggling to walk and stand at times. She was eventually persuaded to meet the group at her house, but by then had become quite ill and gone into hospital.

In addition to her work with Wimbledon DC/CND, Christine was a stalwart of several other groups over many years: a supporter of our local Merton Palestine Solidarity Campaign, frequently attending stalls to help leaflet, as recently as last year. She also supported Cuba Solidarity Campaign and Amnesty International.

Christine was well known in Wimbledon Labour Party as well, where she helped coordinate leafletting, and joined in canvassing sessions. She stood in the Wimbledon West by-election in November 1975 and for election as a Councillor in Dundonald ward in 2014.

Christine will be fondly remembered and greatly missed; her passion and determination certainly inspired me.

Are We Really Heading For World War Three?

Wimbledon CND Disarmament Coalition’s Alison Williams reflects on the disturbing findings of a recent YouGov poll

I wonder how many of us are familiar with the results of a YouGov poll published on 1 February on the likelihood of a Third World War in 5-10 years. The headline results are disturbing: over half of Britons think it is likely; somewhat under half think Britain and allies would win; and well over half think it is likely to be fought with nuclear weapons.

Is that a fair reflection of the national outlook — accepting the likelihood of involvement in major, probably nuclear-armed, conflict within a decade? The axiom that a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought no longer applies, it seems.

A fifth of the UK’s defence budget maintains our nuclear deterrent which one researcher says is cannibalising the conventional forces, now seriously depleted. That said, as we approach a general election, time may be on our side.

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons has been in force for three years and continues to gain support. Currently, there are 93 signatories and 69 fully-signed-up states parties. Those of us who have been out and about, offering leaflets and information on nuclear disarmament, are encouraged by increased public interest.

Gaza, Israel & the United States: an update

The paper below was written by Carol Turner for CND’s International Advisory Group on 26 March, and circulated to CND’s Spring Council, April 2024.

On 25 March the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2728 (2024) by 14 votes for, including the UK, and 1 abstention by the United States. The UNSC resolution demands ‘an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan’ and ‘the lifting of all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale, in line with international humanitarian law’. 

Israel immediately announced it would not comply with the resolution, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cancelled a scheduled trip to the US by his senior advisers. The Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, tweeted: ‘We will destroy Hamas and continue to fight until the last of the hostages returns home.’ 

The current strain in relations between Israel and the US, which have led to the first successful ceasefire resolution in six months, emerged into the open in December when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans for his military operation in Rafah. The US insists this is ‘a major mistake’. But diplomatic efforts to change Netanyahu’s direction have so far failed to achieve results. 

Rafah: a shift in US-Israel relations

Rafah not only marks a new and brutal phase in Israel’s war on Gaza, it also represents a significant shift in US relations with the Netanyahu government. It does not, however, signal a fundamental break in the United States relations with Israel. Nor is it the first sign of tensions between Israel and the US over Gaza.

An intelligence report, the Annual Threat Assessment 2024 of the US Intelligence Community – 

released on 5 February this year but prepared over months before recent tensions emerged – predicts that Israel will struggle to achieve its goal of destroying Hamas. The report expresses concern that Netanyahu’s right wing coalition ‘may be in jeopardy’, and poses the possibility of ‘a different, more moderate government’ in Israel.

The following exchanges (mostly taken from New York Times reports) trace the path to the United States abstention on UNSC resolution 2728:

9 March: President Joe Biden said Netanyahu was ‘hurting Israel more than helping Israel’. 

10 March: in an interview with Politico US, Netanyahu dismissed Biden’s comment saying the ‘overwhelming majority’ of Israelis agree with his, Natanyahu’s policies.

14 March: Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer, majority Senate leader and described as the most senior Jewish elected official in the US called for elections to replace Netanyahu. He said Netanyahu’s ‘political survival [was] taking precedence over the best interests of Israel’.

15 March: Biden confirmed the White House had been given notice of Schumer’s speech: ‘He made a good speech, and I think he expressed serious concern shared not only by him, but by many Americans.’

Israeli politicians were divided. Yair Lapid, leader of Israel’s opposition since January 2023 and founder of Yesh Atid, described as a centrist, liberal Zionist party, welcomed Schumer’s comments. He said ‘Netanyahu is causing heavy damage to the national effort to win the war and preserve Israel’s security. 

War cabinet member Benny Ganz tweeted that Schumer ‘erred in his remark’ saying ‘external intervention is not correct and not welcome’. 

US pressure on Netanyahu

Should Biden be unable to persuade Netanyahu to change course, the intelligence report together with the political comments and exchanges cited above suggest that the US is willing to publicly encourage a change of government in Israel. This is further confirmed elsewhere.

Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, President of the Middle East Policy Council and a former US Ambassador to Malta told BBC Newsnight, Schumer was known as a staunch ally of Israel and the point of his speech was ‘for it to be noticed by the Israeli people’. Ehud Olmert, speaking on the same programme said ‘every minute that [Natanyahu] is prime minister he is a danger to Israel’ and pointed out ‘a majority of Israelis don’t trust the prime minister’. Olmert is a former Israeli prime minister 2006-09 and Mayor of Jerusalem 1993-2003. 

Sadly, this does not reflect a change of heart in relation to Gaza so much as concern that the impact of Netanyahu’s military action in Gaza is significantly undermining international support for Israel and, therefore, acting as a hinderance to US influence in the Middle East. 

In an interview with MSNBC, Biden elaborated on his comments that Netanyahu was hurting more than helping Israel. He had, he said, spoken to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and they are ‘all fully willing to recognise Israel and begin to rebuild the region’.

It is not yet clear that the events of the past week will lead either to a change of policy on humanitarian aid to Gaza and the collective punishment of Palestinians in the Occupied Territories, or to a change of government in Israel. 

Despite Netanyahu’s personal unpopularity in Israel and the differences that exist in the Knesset, all the political parties share an over-arching goal – that of protecting the existence of the state of Israel. So far this has meant the Knesset is unwilling to distance itself from Netanyahu’s military strategy, even though some politicians are critical of the details. This is the fundamental roadblock Biden is facing. 

Postscript: the Gaza solidarity campaign

UNSC resolutions are legally binding. Israel’s refusal to adhere to UNSC 2728 violates the UN charter and international law and can lead to further action. In this case, in theory at least, it could lead to a block on arms exports to Israel. This is extremely unlikely, and is already being downplayed by commentators close to the Biden administration.

It does suggest though that CND should consider joining forces with Palestine Solidarity Campaign, Campaign Against Arms Trade, and others campaigning to Stop Arming Israel. This aspect of support for Gaza comes to the fore in the aftermath of the UNSC resolution. By helping take forward support for Gaza in this way, CND will have an additional advantage – that of highlighting Israel as a nuclear armed state and promoting our long-held call for a nuclear weapons free Middle East. 

1 The full text of UNSC Resolution 2728, of 25 March 25, can be found at https://www.jns.org/full-text-un-security-council-resolution-2728/

2 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, 5 February 2024, at https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf 

3 BBC Newsnight, 19 March 2024, at https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001xj50/newsnight-19032024?seriesId=unsliced&page=1

Carol Turner is Chair of London Region CND and a CND Vice Chair. She is a directly elected member of CND’s National Council and part of the International Advisory Group.

Carol is a long-time peace campaigner, a member of Stop the War Coalition’s National Officer Group, and author of Corbyn and Trident: Labour’s Continuing Controversy.