Ukraine Update [Briefing]

London CND Conference Briefing

Ukraine Update

The security situation in Ukraine has rapidly deteriorated since Russia invaded on 24 February 2022. At the end of November 2023, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) estimated that the conflict had taken over 18,500 lives, at least 10,000 of them civilians. 

There are an estimated 12 million people inside Ukraine and over 4 million Ukrainian refugees in neighbouring countries requiring relief and protection. The Red Cross states: ‘The situation is still incredibly tense, dangerous, and distressing. People have taken shelter in basements, but often lack the most basic supplies such as food and water and at times have been unable to go out because of the shelling.’ It has also been reported that the facilities of humanitarian organisations are being targeted.

December 2023 saw an escalation of armed conflict in multiple regions, including Kyiv and the eastern oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk. In December, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed across western media channels for increased aid, admitting Ukraine could not win the war without the assistance of NATO allies. 

A White House spokesperson described US military aid as having ‘ground to a halt’. Before the final session of 2023, President Joe Biden urged Congress to agree $61.4bn for Ukraine, but this continues to be blocked in both the House and the Senate in disputes between Democrats and Republicans over aid to Israel and Ukraine. A €50-billion EU fund for Ukraine has also been vetoed by Hungary, which is due for re-discussion in February.

On a recent visit to Ukraine, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed an agreement promising long-term support for Ukraine, highlighting that the UK was the first to do so. Sunak promised a £2.5bn increase in aid from Britain this year but has declined to name a figure for UK long term aid.

CND continues to highlight the significance of Russia’s war on Ukraine, which carries an existential threat of nuclear war between NATO and Russia. The size of their combined arsenals should not be forgotten – approximately 12,000 nuclear weapons, many of which are 100 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.

Civilians in Ukraine, including ethnic Russians scattered throughout the country and who form a significant section of the population in Donbas, are the losers as this protracted conflict continues. CND calls for UK government intervention to convene peace talks, and for a halt to NATO expansion. A lasting settlement requires negotiations that take into account the security interests of all parties and ensure Russian troop withdrawal.

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Learn more at the London CND Annual Conference “No Wars, No Nukes”, taking place on Sunday 14th January.

The UK-US Mutual Defence Agreement [Briefing]

London CND Conference Briefing

The UK-US Mutual Defence Agreement

The Mutual Defence Agreement (MDA) is a long-standing nuclear agreement between the United Kingdom and the United States, established in 1958. According to the UK parliament website, it allows the two states to exchange nuclear materials, technology, and information.

While the MDA originally prohibited the transfer of nuclear weapons, subsequent amendments allow for the exchange of nuclear materials and equipment, renewing every decade, most recently in 2014. However, given the classified nature of the agreement, little is known about its content. The agreement is up for renewal in 2024.

The MDA and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

One significant aspect is that the MDA contradicts the commitments made by both nations as signatories to the nuclear NPT. The NPT requires signatories to work towards nuclear disarmament, yet the MDA perpetuates the development and enhancement of nuclear arsenals rather than their discontinuation. Moreover, the MDA's provisions, necessitating the renewal every ten years, clash with the NPT's directive against transferring nuclear weapons to any recipient.

The MDA and democracy

Another contentious point is the lack of parliamentary oversight and debate regarding the MDA's renewal. While the US Congress has the power to veto the treaty, the British Parliament lacks the ability to object or ratify it. This lack of transparency and parliamentary oversight erodes democratic principles and obstructs meaningful discourse on a matter of profound national and international significance. Furthermore, the MDA's structure and implications erode democratic norms by creating an asymmetrical power dynamic related to the ability of the US congress to veto the Treaty whilst the British parliament is deprived of such a power.

This disparity in decision-making processes between the two nations undermines the notion of equal partnership and weakens the democratic fabric of the UK by marginalising parliamentary checks and balances. Similarly, the government’s secrecy surrounding this agreement stands in stark contrast to international efforts towards nuclear disarmament, prompting the need for accountability, transparency and a shift towards collaborative disarmament initiatives rather than clandestine alliances.

Reliance on the US

Trident's reliance on the US is profound. Components of the UK warhead are sourced directly from the US, and the UK leases Trident II D5 missiles from the US. The maintenance and replacement of these missiles necessitate regular visits by British submarines to US bases. The UK's involvement in the US nuclear weapons laboratories and participation in 'sub-critical' nuclear tests further solidify this dependence. This reliance on the US not only compromises Britain’s autonomy and also holds sway over its foreign and defence policies. The deeply entrenched relationship created by the MDA raises crucial questions about the UK's commitment to disarmament and its independence in making strategic decisions.

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Learn more at the London CND Annual Conference “No Wars, No Nukes”, taking place on Sunday 14th January.

Challenging the return of US nukes to Britain [Briefing]

London CND Conference Briefing

Challenging the return of US nukes to Britain

RAF Lakenheath, located just 100 km from London, was home to 110 nuclear bombs until 2008 when they were removed due to popular protest. Now, we believe they’re back. These suspicions derive from when the US Department of Defence added the UK to a list of NATO nuclear weapons storage locations in Europe that are receiving upgrades through a multimillion-dollar infrastructure program. Notably, the UK was not part of a comparable list in the preceding year, indicating a recent decision.

Despite its RAF designation, Lakenheath is effectively managed by the USAF, housing their units and personnel. It hosts the 48th Fighter Wing (48 FW) under the United States Air Forces in Europe – Air Forces Africa (USAFE-AFAFRICA), overseeing F-15C/D Eagle, F-15E Strike Eagle, and F-35A Lightning II operations. With around 6,000 personnel, it's the largest deployment of USAF personnel in Britain and had hosted US nuclear weapons since 1954.

The US is the only country to locate its nuclear weapons outside its own borders and this substantial surge in NATO's ability to conduct nuclear warfare in Europe poses a significant risk of destabilisation. The reintroduction of these weapons will escalate global tensions and position Britain at the forefront in a potential NATO/Russia conflict.

CND’s Legal Challenge

CND is legally contesting development at RAF Lakenheath and calling for the Ministry of Defence to halt the works at the base until an environmental impact assessment has been conducted. CND believe, under the Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) (England) Order 2017, that the project does not have permitted development rights. The development can proceed without an environmental assessment if executed on behalf of the Crown. However, CND argue this exception does not apply since the construction is conducted for the USAF.

CND emphasises that the developments at RAF Lakenheath— rapid airfield damage repair facilities (RADR), a child development centre, and a 144-bed dormitory—should have been treated as a unified project in the planning process. According to Planning Practice Guidance, “an application should not be considered in isolation if, in reality, it is an integral part of a more substantial development”. Moreover, the development’s impact should be viewed within the wider context, encompassing both construction and the consequences of hosting nuclear arms.

While environmental impact screenings were conducted separately for the child development centre and RADR, no assessment was undertaken for the 144-bed dormitory. While the MoD believes in its development rights, CND contends that West Suffolk Council's lack of screening disqualifies it from having these rights.

Our concern extends beyond environmental impacts to encompass risks like mishandling of weapons, security threats, and potential UK targeting if nuclear armament occurs. CND asserts that the ongoing construction ignores these risks. Our challenge aims for an inclusion of comprehensive evaluation of US nuclear armament implications, advocating for transparency and accountability in these developments.

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Learn more at the London CND Annual Conference “No Wars, No Nukes”, taking place on Sunday 14th January.