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No Wars, No Nukes - Carol Turner suggests a new year resolution for us all

Only two weeks in, and 2024 is already looking bleak for anti-war and peace campaigners. Over 23,000 dead in Gaza, no resolution to the Ukraine war on the horizon, fighting in Sudan’s civil war continues, as does the long drawn-out conflict in Niger Delta, no let-up in the Saudi-led war in Yemen – and now the threat of action against Houthi solidarity attacks on commercial shipping as a US aircraft carrier steams towards the Red Sea…

 There are so many military engagements across the globe that most of them don’t even merit a mention in the western media. That’s not the case for campaigners with an internationalist perspective on peace and justice, with a big job ahead this year.

 London CND’s annual conference, No Wars No Nukes could prove a much needed dose of inspiration and determination, as well as practical inputs on what’s to be done, preparing us all for the solidarity struggles that lie ahead. As the name implies, the two keynote speakers and both panels are focussed on nuclear dangers facing Britain and the world, and on solidarity with the Occupied Territories as the prospect of regional escalation draws closer.

 

Prospects for the Occupied Territories

The humanitarian situation in Gaza is beyond bad. Restricted aid access means the risk of famine grows daily. At least one in four Gazan households face ‘catastrophic hunger’ according to the UN-backed IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification). The destruction and damage to essential water, sanitation and health systems brings disease spreading among a weakened population. Prolonged diarrhoea, for example, puts children in particular at risk from death through malnutrition.

 There are no signs yet of any shift to a ‘less intense’ warfare strategy that Israel claims to be adopting. On the contrary, signs are growing that the conflict could spread across the region. Israel looks determined to pull Hezbollah into all-out confrontation. Its successful strikes on Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon and Iraq has resulted in a retaliatory drone attack on northern Israel with tens of thousands of Israelis being evacuated from the border.

 London CND’s keynote speech by Palestinian Ambassador Husam Zomlot sets the scene for a panel discussion, chaired by Murad Qureshi, with Raghad Altikriti, Muslim Association of Britain President, one of the six groups organising the mass mobilisations in Britain. She’s joined by Jenny Manson, a founder member of Jews for Justice for Palestinians and co-chair of Jewish Voice for Labour, and Sami Ramadani, Iraqi Democrats Against War and an anti-war voice in Britain for three decades.

 

Nuclear war clouds gathering

Bell Ribero-Addy MP, an outspoken Labour voice for Gaza and a Vice Chair of Parliamentary CND, kicks the conference off with a view from Westminster, followed by a panel on Nuclear War Clouds Gathering, with well-known climate change activist Samantha Mason, reflecting on the relationship between war and climate, and Cllr Emma Dent-Coad and myself reviewing the nuclear threats of 2024 and the role the anti-war movement can play in combatting them.

Most immediate and important to peace activists in Britain, is the return of US nukes to Lakenheath, part of NATO’s European nuclear forces; while the renewal this year of the decennial UK-US Mutual Defence Agreement is a good time to remind ourselves that nuclear weapons are at the centre of the so-called special relationship.

 NATO and Russia

The potential of the Ukraine war to stimulate a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia is at the forefront of threats that confront us in 2024. Israel too is a  nuclear armed state, and the far right have already raised the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the Gaza conflict.

 Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu suggested in a radio interview reported in the Times of Israel that the nuclear option ‘was one way’ of dealing with Gaza. As unrealistic as it sounds to consider dropping a nuclear bomb on your own doorstep, Israel does have tactical nuclear weapons. Given IDF belligerence on Gaza, who’s to say a section of the Israeli leadership won’t consider threatening their use, or even using them, should Iran become an issue. What seemed like a hollow threat from a few Israeli government outliers last autumn, could be a step closer as the consequences spread across the Middle East and North Africa.


London CND’s annual conference takes place online Sunday 14 January, 12 noon to 2.30pm. Register in advance at http://tinyurl.com/NoWarsNoNukes

This blog first appeared in Labour Outlook 


Carol Turner is co-chair of London Region CND and a CND Vice Chair. She is a directly elected member of CND’s National Council and part of the International Advisory Group.

Carol is a long-time peace campaigner, a member of Stop the War Coalition’s National Officer Group, and author of Corbyn and Trident: Labour’s Continuing Controversy.


Ukraine Update [Briefing]

London CND Conference Briefing

Ukraine Update

The security situation in Ukraine has rapidly deteriorated since Russia invaded on 24 February 2022. At the end of November 2023, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) estimated that the conflict had taken over 18,500 lives, at least 10,000 of them civilians. 

There are an estimated 12 million people inside Ukraine and over 4 million Ukrainian refugees in neighbouring countries requiring relief and protection. The Red Cross states: ‘The situation is still incredibly tense, dangerous, and distressing. People have taken shelter in basements, but often lack the most basic supplies such as food and water and at times have been unable to go out because of the shelling.’ It has also been reported that the facilities of humanitarian organisations are being targeted.

December 2023 saw an escalation of armed conflict in multiple regions, including Kyiv and the eastern oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk. In December, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed across western media channels for increased aid, admitting Ukraine could not win the war without the assistance of NATO allies. 

A White House spokesperson described US military aid as having ‘ground to a halt’. Before the final session of 2023, President Joe Biden urged Congress to agree $61.4bn for Ukraine, but this continues to be blocked in both the House and the Senate in disputes between Democrats and Republicans over aid to Israel and Ukraine. A €50-billion EU fund for Ukraine has also been vetoed by Hungary, which is due for re-discussion in February.

On a recent visit to Ukraine, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed an agreement promising long-term support for Ukraine, highlighting that the UK was the first to do so. Sunak promised a £2.5bn increase in aid from Britain this year but has declined to name a figure for UK long term aid.

CND continues to highlight the significance of Russia’s war on Ukraine, which carries an existential threat of nuclear war between NATO and Russia. The size of their combined arsenals should not be forgotten – approximately 12,000 nuclear weapons, many of which are 100 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.

Civilians in Ukraine, including ethnic Russians scattered throughout the country and who form a significant section of the population in Donbas, are the losers as this protracted conflict continues. CND calls for UK government intervention to convene peace talks, and for a halt to NATO expansion. A lasting settlement requires negotiations that take into account the security interests of all parties and ensure Russian troop withdrawal.


Learn more at the London CND Annual Conference “No Wars, No Nukes”, taking place on Sunday 14th January.

The UK-US Mutual Defence Agreement [Briefing]

London CND Conference Briefing

The UK-US Mutual Defence Agreement

The Mutual Defence Agreement (MDA) is a long-standing nuclear agreement between the United Kingdom and the United States, established in 1958. According to the UK parliament website, it allows the two states to exchange nuclear materials, technology, and information.

While the MDA originally prohibited the transfer of nuclear weapons, subsequent amendments allow for the exchange of nuclear materials and equipment, renewing every decade, most recently in 2014. However, given the classified nature of the agreement, little is known about its content. The agreement is up for renewal in 2024.

The MDA and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

One significant aspect is that the MDA contradicts the commitments made by both nations as signatories to the nuclear NPT. The NPT requires signatories to work towards nuclear disarmament, yet the MDA perpetuates the development and enhancement of nuclear arsenals rather than their discontinuation. Moreover, the MDA's provisions, necessitating the renewal every ten years, clash with the NPT's directive against transferring nuclear weapons to any recipient.

The MDA and democracy

Another contentious point is the lack of parliamentary oversight and debate regarding the MDA's renewal. While the US Congress has the power to veto the treaty, the British Parliament lacks the ability to object or ratify it. This lack of transparency and parliamentary oversight erodes democratic principles and obstructs meaningful discourse on a matter of profound national and international significance. Furthermore, the MDA's structure and implications erode democratic norms by creating an asymmetrical power dynamic related to the ability of the US congress to veto the Treaty whilst the British parliament is deprived of such a power.

This disparity in decision-making processes between the two nations undermines the notion of equal partnership and weakens the democratic fabric of the UK by marginalising parliamentary checks and balances. Similarly, the government’s secrecy surrounding this agreement stands in stark contrast to international efforts towards nuclear disarmament, prompting the need for accountability, transparency and a shift towards collaborative disarmament initiatives rather than clandestine alliances.

Reliance on the US

Trident's reliance on the US is profound. Components of the UK warhead are sourced directly from the US, and the UK leases Trident II D5 missiles from the US. The maintenance and replacement of these missiles necessitate regular visits by British submarines to US bases. The UK's involvement in the US nuclear weapons laboratories and participation in 'sub-critical' nuclear tests further solidify this dependence. This reliance on the US not only compromises Britain’s autonomy and also holds sway over its foreign and defence policies. The deeply entrenched relationship created by the MDA raises crucial questions about the UK's commitment to disarmament and its independence in making strategic decisions.


Learn more at the London CND Annual Conference “No Wars, No Nukes”, taking place on Sunday 14th January.